My iPad Scorecard: How Were My Predictions? And Further Thoughts on the iPad

Well, the long awaited Apple tablet was announced yesterday. I made some predictions about the device before the announcement, so it’s only fair that I look back and what I foresaw and see where I went right, and where I went wrong. I’m also going to comment on what I missed, and what I think about the device in general.

So, first, here’s my scorecard:

• Name: Since I didn’t come out firmly behind any of the names I mentioned, I don’t get any grade here. I did say I prefer iBook, and it turns out that Apple is using that name for its ebook reader app (well, it’s “iBooks”). I don’t think iPad is the best name, in part because I’m going to make lots of typos between iPod and iPad. Since I write about these things, it’ll be irksome. But no big deal.
• Size: On the screen size I got it right, and the actual thickness and weight as well, even though I didn’t suggest any numbers for the latter. It’s worth noting that it’s half the weight of the MacBook Air, which feels heavy to me, but it’s hard to actually imagine what the device is like without holding it. Colleagues who have held it say that it doesn’t feel heavy.

  One interesting point about the screen is its format: with a resolution of 1024 x 768, it’s a 4:3 ratio, something we haven’t seen on computer screens for quite some time. When you think about this, however, there’s a subtle logic to this format: it’s better for reading things such as books, magazines and web pages than a 16:10 format (which is what Apple uses for all its Macs). It’s cleanly not designed for video, even though you can view videos on it, but it’s probably better for games.

• Connectivity: I pretty much called that, suggesting a wifi-only model and a 3G model. $130 seems to be quite a difference for the 3G model, but the non-contract nature of 3G access, at least in the US, is a good thing.

  I did miss on the wireless syncing. I hope it’s something that Apple adds soon, both to the iPod touch/iPhone and to the iPad.

• Content: With the screen size and the new ebook store, one of the main uses for this devices is indeed reading. Gaming is also the other area that Apple highlighted, so I’m pretty good on this. I never expected something like iWork, though, and I wonder how that will play out. I can’t see doing anything complex on a table, but it might work. It can be useful to use it for presentations, with Keynote, and spreadsheets, with Numbers, but for complex layout in Pages it probably won’t be very practical.

  Apple didn’t talk about textbooks, and I think that may be something they focus on around the end of the school year, as we already know that textbook publishers are involved in preparing content for the device.

• Operating system: I got this one right, but I expected that there would be some multi-tasking to allow more than one iPhone app to run concurrently. I hope they bring multi-tasking to this device soon.
• Content delivery: As predicted, Apple will be selling ebooks, but there were no announcements of anything for periodicals. Apple did show a New York Times app, and perhaps the method will not be providing issues by subscription, but rather users buy an app with a subscription, and delivery is made by the content provider, rather than Apple.

  It’s not clear what kind of files you can view, other than for iWork, nor if you can access files from another device (file sharing). After all, say I’m making a presentation with Keynote; I’ll need access to certain images, charts, etc. that may be on another computer. We’ll know more about this soon.

• Price: My colleagues laughed at me when I suggested a $500 price point, but they were surprised when that was indeed the starting price. Obviously, there are different versions, but a lot of people will be able to get by just fine with the $499, 16 GB wifi version of the iPad. Those who need more storage will be able to go as high as 64 GB for $699, which is not excessive for the additional capacity. As I said above, I think $130 is a bit steep for the 3G version.
• Availability: I called this right too. As I suggested, this gives time for developers to create apps for the device. It also allows Apple to get FCC approval in the US, which it does not yet have.

All in all, this is one impressive device. While I wish it had a Dvorak keyboard layout, maybe Apple will add that before it’s released. I think it’s going to be hugely successful, and will meet a lot of needs that aren’t currently met. Many people will find it an improvement over their smartphone for doing basic computing tasks (web browsing, e-mail, etc.), and others will use it to replace their laptops for the same thing. A large number of people will probably buy it simply for reading ebooks, and, interestingly, there will be competition for the content, with Apple providing their own sales, and, most likely, Amazon upgrading their iPhone Kindle app as well. The press will come along very soon, either with apps to access their content on a subscription basis, or with some Apple-supported periodical distribution system, and games will be a big element that help sell this device.

I’ll be buying one as soon as it’s released, and I’m looking forward to the future of the iPad as a paradigm, and I wonder what other computer companies will do to try and fight for what may be a new market that, in the past, they were not able to capture using a standard operating system (ie, Windows).